The Effect of Temperature on the Suicide Rates in Turkey: A Time Series Analysis
Erhan Kartal, Yasin EtliDepartment of Forensic Medicine, Van Yüzüncü Yıl University, Van, TurkeyINTRODUCTION: Rising ambient temperature is increasingly recognized as a potential risk factor for suicide, yet long-term, nationwide evidence from developing countries remains limited. This study investigates the association between temperature and suicide rates in Turkey over a 24-year period.
METHODS: Monthly suicide data were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute (2000–2023), while average temperature was derived from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Regressors (SARIMAX) model accounted for seasonality, autocorrelation, and temperature as a covariate.
RESULTS: All three SARIMAX models showed a statistically significant positive relationship between temperature and suicide rates (p < 0.001). For each 1°C increase, the suicide rate rose by 0.0038 per 100,000 population in the total group, 0.0043 per 100,000 among males, and 0.0025 per 100,000 among females. Model diagnostics (e.g., Ljung-Box, Jarque-Bera) suggested good overall fit. Despite limitations such as the lack of daily data and additional covariates, these findings underscore the robust link between ambient temperature and suicide.
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This nationwide analysis highlights temperature as an important environmental factor influencing suicide. In light of climate change, public health strategies should consider the implications of rising temperatures. Future work incorporating more covariates and higher-resolution data could further elucidate the complex relationship between temperature and suicidal behavior.
Manuscript Language: English